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68. Trading the News - The Consumer Price Index (CPI)

A lesson on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for active traders and investors in the stock, futures and forex markets.

: * howto * trade * CPI * Consumer * Price * Index * forex * stockmarket * trading

Agregado: August 5, 2010, 10:35 pm

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63. Trading the News - Economic Numbers - GDP Part 2

The second lesson in a series on trading and how the components which make up the Gross Domestic Product number affect the stock, futures, and forex markets. Link to this lesson on InformedTrades.com: http://www.informedtrades.com/14918-t... In addition to looking at the growth or lack thereof in the overall GDP number, traders will also look at the growth or lack there of in the different components that make up the number. As GDP represents the value of everything in an Economy you can imagine the amount of data that goes into compiling the number, much of which is published for market participants to view. By looking at the different pieces which make up GDP we can get a good picture of what is happening not only with the overall economy but with all the different components of the economy which are reported on to come up with the final number. . Now we could spend many lessons going over all the data that is in this report. The goal here however is to build a framework for understanding the major components so we as traders can understand what is going on when the market reacts to certain pieces of the report and will recognize when to dig deeper for more information on what is happening in a certain sector. The broad categories that it is important to have an understanding of are: 1. Personal Consumption Expenditures -- as over 65% of the US economy is made up of this category, what the individual consumer is doing ie the growth or lack thereof in their consumption, as well as on what goods and services they are spending their money on is heavily focused on. 2. Private Investment - This includes purchases of things such as computers, equipment and inventories (known as fixed assets) by businesses, purchases of homes by individuals, and of businesses investing in inventories of goods to sell. These are all obviously important things, as how much businesses are investing is a good indication of how they feel about future growth prospects, and how much growth the housing market is experiencing is also an important component of the economy. 3. Government Spending -- this includes pretty much everything the government spends money on besides social programs. 4. Exports -- Imports -- an important number which shows how wide the gap is between how much the country exports and how much it imports. What the GDP number is going to give you a feel for is how much each of the above grew for the quarter and what their overall contribution to the economy was. The above numbers will then be broken down into more detailed numbers which go into compiling the final number for the above 4 categories.

: # howto # trade # GDP # Gross # Domestic # Product # economy # fundamental # analysis # investing # forex # futures # st

Agregado: August 5, 2010, 8:40 pm

Tiempo: 01:00 | Vistas: 157 | Comentarios: 0

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57. What Traders Know About Interest Rates Part 2

The second lesson of two on interest rates, why they are so important to the stock market and to traders and investors in the stock, futures, and forex markets with an introduction to the Federal Reserve. In yesterday's lesson we began our discussion on Monetary Policy with a look at one of its primary components, interest rates. In today's lesson we are going to continue this discussion with another look at how interest rates affect the economy and therefore the markets, and by introducing the institution which implements Monetary Policy, the Federal Reserve. As we saw in our example yesterday, small movements in interest rates can have dramatic effects on the economy. Just as small changes in interest rates can dramatically increase the costs for individuals to own a home or borrow money to purchase other goods, they can also have a dramatic affect on the cost of doing business. It is for this reason that when interest rates rise, making borrowed money more costly, that people will also be less likely to start or expand a business. This not only has an effect on the business owner themselves but filters throughout the entire economy as less businesses being started and expanded means less jobs, which means less people getting paychecks, which means less people spending money and on and on down the line. The opposite is of course also true for when interest rates fall and business owners take advantage of access to cheaper borrowed money. In addition to interest rates affecting the stock market, interest rates also have direct and indirect affects on the bond, foreign exchange, and futures markets. Here are a couple of quick examples of this which we will expand on in later lessons: The Bond Market: When interest rates rise the value of existing bonds fall as investors can now purchase the same bond with a higher interest rate and vice versa. The Forex Market: When Interest rates it becomes more attractive from a yield standpoint to own the dollar against other currencies or to invest in interest bearing dollar based assets. This creates a demand for dollars which will many times cause the dollar to strengthen. The reverse is also true when interest rates fall. The Commodities Market: When economies grow at a greater rate as a result of lower interest rates this will mean a greater demand for commodities so their value will rise and vice versa.

: # howto # trade # interestrates # economy # fundamental # analysis # investing # business # forex # futures # stockmarke

Agregado: August 5, 2010, 8:36 pm

Tiempo: 01:00 | Vistas: 126 | Comentarios: 0

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52. Fundamental Analysis and The US Economy

A lesson on the basics of fundamental analysis, the top down and bottom up, and the US Economy for traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets. there are two ways that traders analyze the markets which are known as technical analysis and fundamental analysis. As I also mentioned in that lesson while most people who buy and sell over the short term focus on technical analysis and most people who buy and sell over the long term focus on fundamental analysis, in my opinion both technical traders, fundamental traders, and investors can all benefit from at least having an understanding of both types of analysis even if they prefer one or the other as their primary tool they use to make their trading decisions. While technical analysis focuses solely on the analysis of historical price action, fundamental analysis focuses on everything else including things such as the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. When analyzing a stock, currency or commodity using fundamental analysis there are two basic approaches one can use which are known as bottom up analysis and top down analysis. Bottom up analysis very simply means looking at the details such, as earnings if we are talking about a stock, first and then working one's way up to the larger picture by looking at things such as the industry of the company who's stock you are trading and then finally the overall economic picture. Top down analysis on the other hand means looking at the big picture things such as the economy first and then working one's way down to the details such as earnings if we are talking about a stock. While there is some debate about which method is best my personal preference is for Top Down analysis and since by starting this way we can start with the things that apply to all markets and not just the stock market this is how we will start. The first thing that it is important to understand from a fundamental standpoint is what the economic situation is as it affects the financial instrument you are trading. As I am based in the US and the US is the World's largest economy this is what I am going to talk about, however most of the things I discuss here apply in a broad sense to any economy. When we begin to discuss the foreign exchange market in later lessons we will go into specific details of the other major and emerging market economies from around the world. According to Investopedia.com the definition of an Economy is "the large set of inter-related economic production and consumption activities which aid in determining how scarce resources are allocated. The economy encompasses everything relating to the production and consumption of goods and services in an area" People often refer to the US Economy as a capitalist or free market economy. A capitalist or free market economy in its most basic sense is one in which the production and distribution of goods and services is done primarily by private (non government) companies and the price for those goods is set by the free market. This is in contrast to a socialist or planned economy where production and distribution of goods and services as well as the pricing of those goods and services is handled by the government.

: # howto # trade # trading # economy # fundamental # analysis # daytrade # investing # business # forex # futures # stock